Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014–16 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.
 
 
i

Superseded

This Document Has Been Replaced By:

i

Retired

This Document Has Been Retired

i

Up-to-date Information

This is the latest update:

Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014–16 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments
  • Published Date:

    2019

  • Source:
    Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 61–79.
Filetype[PDF-3.21 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Author:
  • Description:
    Four different versions of the HAILCAST hail model have been tested as part of the 2014–16 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments. HAILCAST was run as part of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF Ensemble during 2014–16 and the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in 2016. Objective verification using the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor maximum expected size of hail (MRMS MESH) product was conducted using both object-based and neighborhood grid-based verification. Subjective verification and feedback was provided by HWT participants. Hourly maximum storm surrogate fields at a variety of thresholds and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks were also evaluated for comparison. HAILCAST was found to improve with each version due to feedback from the 2014–16 HWTs. The 2016 version of HAILCAST was equivalent to or exceeded the skill of the tested storm surrogates across a variety of thresholds. The post-2016 version of HAILCAST was found to improve 50-mm hail forecasts through object-based verification, but 25-mm hail forecasting ability declined as measured through neighborhood grid-based verification. The skill of the storm surrogate fields varied widely as the threshold values used to determine hail size were varied. HAILCAST was found not to require such tuning, as it produced consistent results even when used across different model configurations and horizontal grid spacings. Additionally, different storm surrogate fields performed at varying levels of skill when forecasting 25- versus 50-mm hail, hinting at the different convective modes typically associated with small versus large sizes of hail. HAILCAST was able to match results relatively consistently with the best-performing storm surrogate field across multiple hail size thresholds.
  • Keywords:
  • DOI:
    https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0027.1
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
  • Collection(s):
    NOAA Cooperative Institutes
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • File Type:
  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files
    1. Filetype[PDF - 18.79 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Spain, E. A.; Johnson, S. C.; Hutton, B.; Whittaker, J. M.; Lucieer, V.; Watson, S. J.; Fox, J. M.; Lupton, J.; Arculus, R.; Bradney, A.; Coffin, M. F.;
      Published Date:
      2020
      Source:
      Earth and Space Science, 7(3)
      Description:
      Bubble emission mechanisms from submerged large igneous provinces remains enigmatic. The Kerguelen Plateau, a large igneous province in the southern Indian Ocean, has a long sustained history of active volcanism and glacial/interglacial cycles of sed...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 18.79 MB]
    2. Filetype[PDF - 2.05 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Curtis, Christopher D.
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2018) 35 (11): 2169–2187.
      Description:
      Time series simulation is an important tool for developing and testing new signal processing algorithms for weather radar. The methods for simulating time series data have not changed much over the last few decades, but recent advances in computing t...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.05 MB]
    3. Filetype[PDF - 3.31 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Rosenow, Andrew A.; Howard, Kenneth; Meitín, José G.;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2469–2481.
      Description:
      On 24 January 2017, a convective snow squall developed in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. This squall produced rapidly varying winds at San Luis Valley airport in Alamosa, Colorado, with gusts up to 12 m s−1, and an associated visibility drop to 1...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.31 MB]
    4. Filetype[PDF - 3.31 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Cocks, Stephen B.; Tang, Lin; Zhang, Pengfei; Ryzhkov, Alexander; Kaney, Brian; Elmore, Kimberly; Wang, Yadong; Zhang, Jian; Howard, Kenneth;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      J. Hydrometeor. (2019) 20 (5): 999–1014.
      Description:
      The quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) algorithm developed and described in Part I was validated using data collected from 33 Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D) radars on 37 calendar days east of the Rocky Mountains. A key physi...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.31 MB]
    5. Filetype[PDF - 5.61 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Potvin, Corey K.; Broyles, Chris; Skinner, Patrick S.; Brooks, Harold E.; Rasmussen, Erik;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 15–30.
      Description:
      The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado database, generated from NCEI’s Storm Data publication, is indispensable for assessing U.S. tornado risk and investigating tornado–climate connections. Maximizing the value of this database, however, requ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.61 MB]
    6. Filetype[PDF - 2.53 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Wang, Yadong; Cocks, Stephen; Tang, Lin; Ryzhkov, Alexander; Zhang, Pengfei; Zhang, Jian; Howard, Kenneth;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      J. Hydrometeor. (2019) 20 (5): 985–997.
      Description:
      A prototype quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) algorithm that utilizes specific attenuation A and specific differential phase KDP was developed for inclusion into the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system and the Weather Surveillance Radar-19...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.53 MB]
    7. Filetype[PDF - 7.37 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Gebauer, Joshua G.; Shapiro, Alan; Fedorovich, Evgeni; Klein, Petra;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2615–2637.
      Description:
      Observations from three nights of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign were used in conjunction with Rapid Refresh model forecasts to find the cause of north–south lines of convection, which initiated away from obvious sur...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.37 MB]
    8. Filetype[PDF - 7.57 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Jones, Thomas A.; Skinner, Patrick; Knopfmeier, Kent; Mansell, Edward; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Smith, William Jr.;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Wea. Forecasting (2018) 33 (6): 1681–1708.
      Description:
      Forecasts of high-impact weather conditions using convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models have been found to be highly sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysics scheme used within the system. The Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.57 MB]
    9. Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Flora, Montgomery L.; Potvin, Corey K.; Wicker, Louis J.;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2361–2379.
      Description:
      As convection-allowing ensembles are routinely used to forecast the evolution of severe thunderstorms, developing an understanding of storm-scale predictability is critical. Using a full-physics numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework, the sensi...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    10. Filetype[PDF - 1.30 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Wade, Andrew R.; Coniglio, Michael C.; Ziegler, Conrad L.;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Mon. Wea. Rev. (2018) 146 (8): 2403–2415.
      Description:
      A great deal of research focuses on how the mesoscale environment influences convective storms, but relatively little is known about how supercells modify the nearby environment. Soundings from three field experiments are used to investigate differen...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.30 MB]
    11. Filetype[PDF - 1.09 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Brooks, Harold E.; Correia, James Jr.;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      Wea. Forecasting (2018) 33 (6): 1501–1511.
      Description:
      Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false al...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.09 MB]
    12. Filetype[PDF - 1.52 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Cai, C.; Avise, J.; Kaduwela, A.; DaMassa, J.; Warneke, C.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W.; de Gouw, J.; Volkamer, R.; Stevens, P.; Lefer, B.; Holloway, J. S.; Pollack, I. B.; Ryerson, T.; Atlas, E.; Blake, D.; Rappenglueck, B.; Brown, S. S.; Dube, W. P.;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(6)
      Description:
      United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance on the use of photochemical models for assessing the efficacy of an emissions control strategy for ozone requires that modeling be used in a relative sense. Consequently, testing a modeling syste...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.52 MB]
    13. Filetype[PDF - 855.89 KB]
      Personal Author:
      Cui, Y. Y.; Henze, D. K.; Brioude, J.; Angevine, W. M.; Liu, Z.; Bousserez, N.; Guerrette, J.; McKeen, S. A.; Peischl, J.; Yuan, B.; Ryerson, T.; Frost, G.; Trainer, M.;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(6)
      Description:
      Quantifying methane (CH4) emissions from the oil and natural gas (O/NG) production sector is an important regulatory challenge in the United States. In this study, we conduct a set of inversion calculations using different methods to quantify lognorm...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 855.89 KB]
    14. Filetype[PDF - 2.37 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Dundas, S. J.; Lewis, D. J.;
      Published Date:
      2020
      Source:
      Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists,7(3)
      Description:
      Estimating nonmarket benefits for erosion protection can help inform better decision making and policies for communities to adapt to climate change. We estimate private values for a coastal protection option in an empirical setting subject to irrever...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.37 MB]
    15. Filetype[PDF - 5.71 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Koch, Steven E.; Fengler, Martin; Chilson, Philip B., 1963-; Elmore, Kimberly L.; Argrow, Brian M.; Andra, David; Lindley, T. Todd;
      Published Date:
      2018
      Source:
      J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2018) 35 (11): 2265–2288.
      Description:
      The potential value of small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for monitoring the preconvective environment and providing useful information in real time to weather forecasters for evaluation at a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office are addr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.71 MB]
    16. Filetype[PDF - 2.20 MB]
      Personal Author:
      Gallo, Burkely T.; Clark, Adam J.; Smith, Bryan T.; Thompson, Richard L.; Jirak, Israel; Dembek, Scott R.;
      Published Date:
      2019
      Source:
      Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (1): 151–164.
      Description:
      Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.20 MB]

You May Also Like:

  1. Filetype[PDF - 791.71 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Petrolito, Anthony W.; Coleman, S. Hunter (Samuel Hunter); Linton, Richard J.;
    Corporate Authors:
    United States, National Weather Service
    Published Date:
    2012
    Series:
    Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.)) ; 2012-01
    Description:
    In the late 1990's, a probability of severe hail equation (LPSH75) for diameter greater than or equal to 0.75 in. (1.9 cm) was developed for the Columbia South Carolina County Warning Area (CAE CWA) using a logistic regression methodology. This equat...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 791.71 KB]
  2. Filetype[PDF - 848.37 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Frugis, Brian J.; Wasula, Thomas A.;
    Corporate Authors:
    United States, National Weather Service., Eastern Region,
    Published Date:
    2011
    Series:
    Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.)) ; 2011-05
    Description:
    The National Weather Service (NWS) changed the criterion for severe hail from 0.75 in (1.9 cm) to 1.00 in (2.5 cm) on 5 January 2010. Many techniques have been developed for forecasting severe hail, such as examining echo tops of various reflectivity...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 848.37 KB]
  3. Filetype[PDF - 418.25 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Hayes, James C.
    Corporate Authors:
    United States, National Weather Service,
    Published Date:
    2008
    Series:
    Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.)) ; no. 2008-04
    Description:
    "The goal of this study was to develop a synoptic climatology of hail days in the Gray, ME (GYX) County Warning Area (CWA). Additionally, 'traditional' thermodynamic parameters for hail forecasting were reviewed, in order to determine their utility i...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 418.25 KB]
  4. Filetype[PDF - 10.28 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Trapp, Robert J. (Robert Jeffrey), 1963-; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Lasher-Trapp, Sonia;
    Published Date:
    2019
    Source:
    J. Climate (2019) 32 (17): 5493–5509.
    Description:
    The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and th...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 10.28 MB]
  5. Filetype[PDF - 53.17 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Allen, John T.; Giammanco, Ian M.; Kumjian, Matthew R.; Punge, Heinz Jurgen; Zhang, Qinghong; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Kunz, Michael; Ortega, Kiel;
    Published Date:
    2020
    Source:
    Reviews of Geophysics, 58(1), e2019RG000665, 2020.
    Description:
    The processes leading to the development of hail and the distribution of these events worldwide are reviewed. Microphysical and physical characteristics of hail development are described to provide context of the notable gaps in our understanding of ...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 53.17 MB]