Global model forecasts of the Great British Storm of 25 January 1990
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Global model forecasts of the Great British Storm of 25 January 1990

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    On the 25th of January, 1990 a severe storm hit Great Britain causing over a billion dollars in damage as well as dozen of deaths. This storm is of interest due to its great destruction but also for some scientific reasons. In 24 hours, the storm deepened more than 30 mb and thus can be considered a bomb, Sanders and Gyakum (1980). Despite rapid development and movement that would normally be difficult to predict, the European Centre predicted the storm 5 days in advance very well. The European Forecasts 3 and 4 days in advance were not as good as their previous 5 day forecast, and their 2 day forecast was even less skillful. NMC's global model did not do well prior to 84 hours in advance of the storm, however, NMC's forecasts for 12 to 84 hours in advance were consistently excellent every 12 hours. The British global forecast 48 hours in advance was not very good, similar to the European 48 hour forecast, while all three centers did fairly well 24 hours in advance.
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