| Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2 - :15245 | National Weather Service (NWS) | Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
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Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2
Filetype[PDF-4.84 MB]


Details:
  • DOI:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00136.1
  • Personal Authors:
  • Description:
    Two novel approaches to extending the range of prediction for environments conducive to severe thunderstorm events are described. One approach charts Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), run-to-run consistency of the areal extent of severe thunderstorm environments using grid counts of the supercell composite parameter (SCP). Visualization of these environments is charted for each 45-day CFSv2 run initialized at 0000 UTC. CFSv2 ensemble-mean forecast maps of SCP coverage over the contiguous United States are also produced for those forecasts meeting certain criteria for high-impact weather. The applicability of this approach to the severe weather prediction challenge is illustrated using CFSv2 output for a series of severe weather episodes occurring in March and April 2014. Another approach, possibly extending severe weather predictability from CFSv2, utilizes a run-cumulative time-averaging technique of SCP grid counts. This process is described and subjectively verified with severe weather events from early 2014.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    National Weather Service (NWS)
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Funding:
    Grant No: NA14OAR4310185
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files
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      Published:
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      Source:
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      Series:
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      Published:
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      Series:
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      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 621-637.
      Series:
      CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)
      File Type:
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