| Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2 - :15245 | Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) | National Weather Service (NWS)
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Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2
Filetype[PDF-4.84 MB]


Details:
  • DOI:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00136.1
  • Personal Authors:
  • Description:
    Two novel approaches to extending the range of prediction for environments conducive to severe thunderstorm events are described. One approach charts Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), run-to-run consistency of the areal extent of severe thunderstorm environments using grid counts of the supercell composite parameter (SCP). Visualization of these environments is charted for each 45-day CFSv2 run initialized at 0000 UTC. CFSv2 ensemble-mean forecast maps of SCP coverage over the contiguous United States are also produced for those forecasts meeting certain criteria for high-impact weather. The applicability of this approach to the severe weather prediction challenge is illustrated using CFSv2 output for a series of severe weather episodes occurring in March and April 2014. Another approach, possibly extending severe weather predictability from CFSv2, utilizes a run-cumulative time-averaging technique of SCP grid counts. This process is described and subjectively verified with severe weather events from early 2014.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
    National Weather Service (NWS)
  • Funding:
    Grant No: NA14OAR4310185
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files
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      Personal Author:
      Line, W. E.; Schmit, T. J.; Lindsey, D. T.; Goodman, S. J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(2), 483-494.
      Series:
      CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)
      Description:
      The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-14 (GOES-14) Imager was operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in an experimental rapid scan 1-min mode during parts of 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. This scan mode, ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.26 MB]
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      Personal Author:
      Zhang, J.; Howard, K.; Langston, C.; Kaney, B.; Qi, Y. C.; Tang, L.; Grams, H.; Wang, Y. D.; Cocks, S.; Martinaitis, S.; Arthur, A.; Cooper, K.; Brogden, J.; Kitzmiller, D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 621-637.
      Series:
      CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 6.39 MB]
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      Personal Author:
      Nooner, S. L.; Chadwick, W. W.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Science, 354(6318), 1399-1403.
      Series:
      CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies)
      Description:
      Deformation of the ground surface at active volcanoes provides information about magma movements at depth. Improved seafloor deformation measurements between 2011 and 2015 documented a fourfold increase in magma supply and confirmed that Axial Seamou...
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