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Hurricane maximum potential intensity equilibrium
  • Published Date:
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    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(692), 2471-2480.
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    This study presents a minimal model to examine the stability of the hurricane maximum potential intensity (MPI) equilibrium, based on the evolution of several hurricane fundamental scales. It is shown that this hurricane-scale model contains MPI as an asymptotically stable spiral point under the wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) feedback mechanism. Furthermore, the hurricane development is characterized by two different time-scales instead of a simple linear growth, as often assumed in previous studies. Inclusion of radiative cooling reduces the MPI limit, but the MPI equilibrium in general is structurally stable. In particular, radiative cooling will modify the basin of attraction of the MPI equilibrium and create a domain in the phase space of the hurricane scales such that a vortex would not develop if its initial condition falls within this domain. Potential mechanisms that can further unfold the stability of the MPI equilibrium will also be discussed.

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