i
Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
-
2016
Source: Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2115-2122.
[PDF-1.52 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Climate Dynamics
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplified warming in high elevation regions during the cold season in boreal midlatitudes. We examine how the twenty-first century elevation-dependent response in the daily minimum surface air temperature [d(Delta Tmin)/dz] varies among 27 different GCMs during winter for the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The focus is on regions within the northern hemisphere mid-latitude band between 27.5A degrees N and 40A degrees N, which includes both the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. We find significant variability in d(Delta Tmin)/dz among the individual models ranging from 0.16 A degrees C/km (10th percentile) to 0.97 A degrees C/km (90th percentile), although nearly all of the GCMs (24 out of 27) show a significant positive value for d(Delta Tmin)/dz. To identify some of the important drivers associated with the variability in d(Delta Tmin)/dz during winter, we evaluate the co-variance between d(Delta Tmin)/dz and the differential response of elevation-based anomalies in different climate variables as well as the GCMs' spatial resolution, their global climate sensitivity, and their elevation-dependent free air temperature response. We find that d(Delta Tmin)/dz has the strongest correlation with elevation-dependent increases in surface water vapor, followed by elevation-dependent decreases in surface albedo, and a weak positive correlation with the GCMs' free air temperature response.
-
Source:Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2115-2122.
-
Document Type:
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:ad93425cd3eebacb16b107bad4b5b9a483cc85b4f4ae713cccb065b36bbad020
-
File Type:
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Diaz, Henry F. ;Wahl, Eugene R....2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(15), 5661-5674.Description:Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to; similar to 1850 CE, after which s...Personal Author:Williams, Christopher R.2016 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.Description:This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved...Personal Author:Lei, Lili ;Whitaker, Jeffrey S.2016 | Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.Description:The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the...Personal Author:Lynn, Barry H. ;Khain, Alexander P....2016 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.Description:Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, t...Personal Author:Livneh, Ben ;Hoerling, Martin P.2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6783-6804.Description:The semiarid U.S. Great Plains is prone to severe droughts having major consequences for agricultural production, livestock health, and river navigati...Personal Author:Koch, Steven E. ;Ware, Randolph...2016 | Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.Description:This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation o...Personal Author:MacDonald, Alexander E. ;Clack, Christopher T. M....2016 | Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.Description:Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces...Personal Author:Zhang, Tao ;Hoerling, Martin P....2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2333-2357.Description:Forced atmospheric teleconnections during 1979-2014 are examined using a 50-member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation...Personal Author:Li, Feng ;Vikhliaev, Yury V....2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.Description:Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stra...Personal Author:Smirnova, Tatiana G. ;Brown, John M....2016 | Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.Description:The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effo...Personal Author:Hodyss, Daniel ;Satterfield, Elizabeth...2016 | Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.Description:Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regr...Personal Author:Brown, M.G. ;Godin, O.A....2016 | Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 574-589.Description:Noise interferometry is the process by which approximations to acoustic Green's functions, which describe sound propagation between two locations, are...Personal Author:Zawislak, Jonathan ;Jiang, Haiyan...2016 | Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.Description:The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of...Personal Author:Newman, Matthew ;Alexander, Michael A....2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(12), 4399-4427.Description:The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an impor...Personal Author:Shao, Hui ;Derber, John...2016 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), 1427-+.Description:With a goal of improving operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) has been working with operational cent...Personal Author:Benjamin, Stanley G. ;Weygandt, Stephen S....2016 | Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.Description:The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional an...2017 | International Journal of Climatology, 37(1), 197-203.Description:Contrary to the above title, a more typical question might be ‘How does climate variability and change impact atolls (and associated ecosystems and ...Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric WarmingsCitePersonal Author:Albers, John R. ;Kiladis, George N....2016 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(6), 2361-2384.Description:The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of ...Personal Author:Ralph, F. Martin ;Cordeira, Jason M....2016 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.Description:The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this comple...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Horton, Radley M. ;
Mankin, Justin S.
...
2016 | Current Climate Change Reports, 2(4), 242-259
Description:
Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensit...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov