Kerlin, James

National Meteorological Center (U.S.)

During the last six years at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), a project to develop a numerical model capable of forecasting hurricane (typhoon) movements has been underway. This project has been very successful and has resulted in the development and operational implementation of a primitive-equation, analysis-forecast system, the Movable- Area Fine-Mesh Model (MFM), capable of producing forecasts of either hurricane tracks or large-scale heavy precipitation. A performance test using the MFM was conducted on selected storms from the Western Pacific-1977 Typhoon Storm Season. The objective of the experiment was to evaluate the performance of the MFM in the Western Pacific where a sparsity of data and large storms exist. The initial analysis came from the Operational Spectral Analysis System. From this analysis a 48- hour Northern Hemisphere Six-Layer Primitive Equation Model forecast on a 381 km (true at 60° latitude) grid was generated to provide boundary conditions for the MFM. Forecast results are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center provided typhoon positions.

Miscellaneous

Pacific Ocean

National Weather Service (NWS)