| Errors in the 48-hour depth of cyclones predicted by the P.E. model as related to the magnitude and location of latent heat release within the storm systems - :12121 | NOAA Historical Materials
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Errors in the 48-hour depth of cyclones predicted by the P.E. model as related to the magnitude and location of latent heat release within the storm systems
  • Published Date:
    1969
Filetype[PDF - 1.34 MB]


Details:
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  • Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
  • Description:
    The 48-hour surface pressure progs made from the 1200 GMT runs of the Primitive Equation Model operational at NMC between October 1968 and May 1969 were examined for errors which might be related to failure to properly handle the effects of latent heat release. Although this study did not yield a "correction formula" which could be operationally used to improve the P.E. forecasts, two interesting diagnostic results were obtained: (1) The greatest errors in underprediction of the central pressure of cyclones occurred in cases when most of the precipitation was in areas where the mean 1000-500 mb thickness was colder than normal, while the depth of storms where most of the precipitation was in areas of abnormally warm mean thickness was also somewhat underpredicted. Storms in which the precipitation was about equally distributed between warm and cold thicknesses were on the average forecast a little too deep. (2) The range between the most underpredicted and most overpredicted cyclones (in other words the uncertainty of the predictions) increased as the magnitude of the thickness anomaly gradient.in the vicinity of the storm increased, although the sign of the error did not appear to have any clear relationship with the thickness anomaly gradient or other parameters.

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