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JNWP 12-hr and 24-hr upper-level wind forecast errors
  • Published Date:
Filetype[PDF - 1.77 MB]

  • Personal Authors:
  • Corporate Authors:
    United States, Weather Bureau,
  • Series:
    Office note (Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (U.S.)) ; no. 14
  • Document Type:
  • Description:
    "Upper level verification studies have been made in the past which measure the validiy of conventional forecast techniques. Forecast errors computed from such studies depend to some extent upon the forecasters' training and experience as well as the particular forecast techniques employed In the case of numerical forecasts the errors are related to the type of prediction model used. This type of wind error might be classed in the category of the forecast technique employed. Furthermore, wind errors vary with the seasons and this variation is related to the varying behavior of the atmosphere with the seasons. Superimposed upon these seasonal trends there exists daily fluctuations. Validity of forecasts over different geographical regions probably vary to some extent also. And, of course, when verifying geostrophic forecast winds vs. reported data, the observational errors and ageostrophic motions also influence the computed forecast error"--Page 1, paragraph 1.

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