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Long-range Weather Forecasting
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  • Evaluation of techniques for long-range forecasting of air temperature and ice formation
    Filetype[PDF - 248.30 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Rogers, Jeffery Charles
    Corporate Authors:
    Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
    Published Date:
    1976
    Series:
    GLERL contribution ; no. 60
    NOAA technical memorandum ERL GLERL ; 8
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 248.30 KB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 248.30 KB]
  • Impact of Land Surface Initialization and Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon with the CFSv2
    Filetype[PDF - 9.16 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Halder, Subhadeep ; Dirmeyer, Paul A. ; ...
    Published Date:
    2018
    Source:
    Front. Environ. Sci., 04 January 2018
    Description:
    The impact of initial land-surface states on monthly to seasonal prediction skill of the Indian summer monsoon (June–September) is investigated usin...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 9.16 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 9.16 MB]
  • The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events
    Filetype[PDF - 1.59 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Vitart, Frédéric, 1966- ; Robertson, A. W. ;
    Published Date:
    2018
    Source:
    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1 (3)
    Description:
    The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) is a 5-year project, established in 2013 by the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and the Wo...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.59 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.59 MB]
  • Uncertainty/Probability: Office of Weather & Air Quality
    Filetype[PDF - 548.27 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Rowley, Katie
    Corporate Authors:
    NOAA Central Library
    Published Date:
    2019
    Series:
    NCRL subject guide ; 2019-06
    Description:
    Due to the inherent and pivotal role of uncertainty and probability in weather forecasting, the NWS and OWAQ have invested heavily in research that ex...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 548.27 KB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 548.27 KB]
  • Long-range forecasting of maximum ice extent on the Great Lakes
    Filetype[PDF - 231.76 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Rogers, Jeffery Charles
    Corporate Authors:
    Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
    Published Date:
    1976
    Series:
    GLERL contribution ; no. 55
    NOAA technical memorandum ERL GLERL ; 7
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 231.76 KB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 231.76 KB]
  • High-resolution coupling and initialization to improve predictability and predictions in climate models workshop, September 30-October 2, 2015
    Filetype[PDF - 7.20 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Joseph, Renu ; Mariotti, Annarita ; ...
    Corporate Authors:
    BioEnergy Science Center (U.S.) ; United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration., Climate Program Office, ;
    Published Date:
    2016
    Series:
    NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO ; 5
    Description:
    "There is a growing demand for reliable high-resolution, coupled-climate information in two communities: the predictions and projections communities. ...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 7.20 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 7.20 MB]
  • Three Day Mainstem River Forecast Verification
    Filetype[PDF - 3.88 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Dean T. Braatz
    Corporate Authors:
    United States. National Weather Service. River Forecast Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1988
    Series:
    Central Region Technical Attachment ; 88-39
    Description:
    The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) has been verifying three day mainstem Mississippi River forecasts since January 1981. For a majority o...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.88 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.88 MB]
  • Implementing a mass flux convection parameterization package for the NMC medium-range forecast model
    Filetype[PDF - 1.96 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Pan, Hua-Lu ; Wu, Wan-Shu ;
    Corporate Authors:
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1995
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 409
    Description:
    On 11 August, 1993, a new convection parameterization package has become operational for the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Medium-Range Forecas...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.96 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.96 MB]
  • Prodecure for the statistical correction of medium-range spectral forecasts
    Filetype[PDF - 616.16 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Epstein, Edward S.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1985
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 301
    Description:
    "It has long been recognized that statistical adjustments applied to the output of dynamically produced numerical progs can systematically reduce thei...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 616.16 KB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 616.16 KB]
  • GUST, a General Unified Similarity Theory for the calculation of turbulent fluxes in numerical weather prediction models for unstable conditions
    Filetype[PDF - 1.26 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Long, Paul E.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1984
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 302
    Description:
    Flux-profile relations are presented for wind and temperature in the surface layer of the unstable atmospheric boundary layer. The flux-profile relati...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.26 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.26 MB]
  • Optimal non-linear objective analysis
    Filetype[PDF - 2.06 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Lorenc, Andrew C.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1986
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 324
    Description:
    "Some practical problems in objective' analysis for numerical weather prediction are best solved by using non-linear analysis equations. They include ...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.06 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.06 MB]
  • Skill of the medium range forecast group
    Filetype[PDF - 17.42 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Hughes, Francis D.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1987
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 326
    Description:
    "This paper depicts in a graphical manner the skill of the Medium Range (3-10 day) Forecast Group (MRFG) man and machine (numerical model guidance) fo...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 17.42 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 17.42 MB]
  • Turbulent mixing near the ground for the nested grid model
    Filetype[PDF - 1.43 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Phillips, Norman A., 1923-
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1986
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 318
    Description:
    The physical principles that have been used to develop mixed-layer models for a surface layer of variable depth "h", are applied instead directly to t...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.43 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.43 MB]
  • Utilization of satellite radiative imagery data for improvement in the analysis of divergent wind in the tropics
    Filetype[PDF - 2.99 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Kasahara, Akira ; Balgovind, Ramesh C. ; ...
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1986
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 325
    Description:
    A scheme is proposed to incorporate satellite radiative imagery data into the specification of initial conditions for the NMC operational global predi...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.99 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.99 MB]
  • An inexpensive technique for using past forecast errors to improve future forecast skill Part I, Adjoint method
    Filetype[PDF - 1.74 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Pu, Zhao-Xia ; Kalnay, Eugenia, 1942- ; ...
    Corporate Authors:
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1995
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 415a
    Description:
    A simple, relatively inexpensive technique has been developed for using past forecast errors to improve the future forecast skill. The method uses the...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.74 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.74 MB]
  • A partial diagnostic analysis of the 7L PE Output
    Filetype[PDF - 2.42 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Gerrity, Joseph P.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1978
    Series:
    Office note (National Meteorological Center (U.S.)) ; 172
    Description:
    "The '7L PE' model possesses several characteristics that distinguish it from its predecessor the '6L PE'. Most significantly, it provides more accura...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.42 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.42 MB]
  • Operational systematic error correction for the NMC operational medium range forecast model
    Filetype[PDF - 576.59 KB]
    Personal Author:
    Alpert, Jordan C. ; Saha, Suranjana ;
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1989
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 360
    Description:
    "Recent improvements in NWP are due in part to a number of factors such as improved resolution, analysis, and physics, e.g., gravity wave drag, cloud ...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 576.59 KB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 576.59 KB]
  • The effect of initial uncertainty in topical analysis upon 5-day forecasts with MNC's global spectral model
    Filetype[PDF - 5.10 MB]
    Personal Author:
    O'Lenic, Edward A. ; Webster, Peter J. ; ...
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1985
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 311
    Description:
    The effect of initial perturbations in the tropical portions of the global optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme used at the National Meteorologi...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.10 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 5.10 MB]
  • The MRF/GDAS Pre-Implementation test
    Filetype[PDF - 1.47 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Gerrity, Joseph P.
    Corporate Authors:
    National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1986
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 322
    Description:
    "Prior to the implementation of the new Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and the new Medium-range Forecast Model (MRF86) on May 30th of this yea...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.47 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.47 MB]
  • An inexpensive technique for using past forecast errors to improve future forecast skill Part II, A quasi-inverse linear method
    Filetype[PDF - 2.67 MB]
    Personal Author:
    Pu, Zhao-Xia ; Kalnay, Eugenia, 1942- ;
    Corporate Authors:
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)
    Published Date:
    1996
    Series:
    Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 415b
    Description:
    A quasi-inverse linear method has been developed to study the sensitivity forecast errors to initial conditions for the National Centers for Environme...
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.67 MB]
    File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.67 MB]
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